Thursday 15 October · 21:00
Benfica – Celtic
Benfica
2nd · attack 1.96 · defence 0.66
Celtic
1st · attack 1.82 · defence 0.73
Our model makes Benfica favourites for Benfica – Celtic, at 52%. Kick-off 15 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Benfica win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Celtic win 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.83 goals for Benfica and 1.21 for Celtic, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.83 for Benfica, 1.21 for Celtic.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Benfica wins; above it, Celtic wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Benfica goals in rows, Celtic goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Benfica v Celtic?
Benfica, at 52%. The full split is Benfica 52%, draw 22%, Celtic 26%.
What is the most likely score in Benfica v Celtic?
1–1, which comes up in 10.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Benfica v Celtic?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.83 for Benfica and 1.21 for Celtic.
Will both teams score in Benfica v Celtic?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Benfica keep a clean sheet or Celtic fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.