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Modelling

Every competition,
read by the same model.

A goals model recomputed after every matchday. For each competition: what it publishes, what it derives from it — and, where it does not publish something, why.

24competitions in the catalogue
14projected over the season
16with match probabilities
5strengths only
Full model · 14

Projected to the final matchday

Team strengths, probabilities for every match and an end-of-season projection: title, European qualification, relegation, place by place.

EnglandPremier LeagueFavouriteManchester City58%Computed on 27 September 2026SpainLa LigaFavouriteFC Barcelona86%Computed on 27 September 2026ItalySerie AFavouriteInter57%Computed on 27 September 2026GermanyBundesligaFavouriteFC Bayern München87%Computed on 27 September 2026FranceLigue 1FavouriteParis Saint Germain70%Computed on 27 September 2026PortugalPrimeira LigaFavouritePorto48%Computed on 27 September 2026NetherlandsEredivisieFavouritePSV71%Computed on 27 September 2026TürkiyeSüper LigFavouriteFenerbahçe28%Computed on 27 September 2026EnglandChampionshipFavouriteWest Ham United44%Computed on 27 September 2026SpainLa Liga 2FavouriteSD Eibar36%Computed on 6 October 2026ItalySerie BFavouritePalermo40%Computed on 27 September 2026SwedenAllsvenskanFavouriteSirius76%Computed on 27 September 2026NorwayEliteserienFavouriteBodø / Glimt67%Computed on 27 September 2026PolandEkstraklasaFavouriteLech Poznań46%Computed on 27 September 2026
Match by match · 2

Match probabilities

The European cups: every fixture has its probabilities, but a cup cannot be projected like a league. The Champions League also has a simulation of each club’s path.

EuropeChampions LeagueComputed on 9 October 2026EuropeEuropa League
Strengths only · 5

Team strengths, without projection

Leagues whose format is not a full round robin (play-offs, split phases). We publish the strengths and the table; a title probability computed on the wrong format would be wrong, not approximate.

BelgiumPro LeagueComputed on 21 September 2026ScotlandPremiershipComputed on 27 September 2026SwitzerlandSuper LeagueComputed on 27 September 2026AustriaAustrian BundesligaComputed on 21 September 2026DenmarkSuperligaComputed on 27 September 2026
Out of scope · 3

What the model does not cover

Domestic cups, and what we do not cover yet. We say so rather than leave you to guess.

CupCarabao CupNot modelled: domestic cups field line-ups our model cannot anticipate. Coverage is not planned.
CupEuropa Conference LeagueNot yet covered by the model.
CupFA CupNot modelled: domestic cups field line-ups our model cannot anticipate. Coverage is not planned.

This data, in your own tools?

Strengths, projections and probabilities can be delivered by API or as files, for newsrooms, clubs and data teams.

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