Thursday 15 October · 18:45
Celje – Omonia Nicosia
Celje
th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.90
Omonia Nicosia
th · attack 0.88 · defence 1.06
Our model makes Omonia Nicosia favourites for Celje – Omonia Nicosia, at 51%. Kick-off 15 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Celje win 26% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Omonia Nicosia win 51%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.10 goals for Celje and 1.67 for Omonia Nicosia, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.10 for Celje, 1.67 for Omonia Nicosia.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Celje wins; above it, Omonia Nicosia wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 7 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Celje goals in rows, Omonia Nicosia goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Celje v Omonia Nicosia?
Omonia Nicosia, at 51%. The full split is Celje 26%, draw 24%, Omonia Nicosia 51%.
What is the most likely score in Celje v Omonia Nicosia?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Celje v Omonia Nicosia?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.10 for Celje and 1.67 for Omonia Nicosia.
Will both teams score in Celje v Omonia Nicosia?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Celje keep a clean sheet or Omonia Nicosia fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.