Thursday 15 October · 21:00
Dinamo Zagreb – Anderlecht
Dinamo Zagreb
th · attack 1.17 · defence 0.98
Anderlecht
5th · attack 1.19 · defence 0.97
Our model makes Dinamo Zagreb favourites for Dinamo Zagreb – Anderlecht, at 52%. Kick-off 15 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Dinamo Zagreb win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Anderlecht win 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.76 goals for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.15 for Anderlecht, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.76 for Dinamo Zagreb, 1.15 for Anderlecht.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Dinamo Zagreb wins; above it, Anderlecht wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Dinamo Zagreb goals in rows, Anderlecht goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht?
Dinamo Zagreb, at 52%. The full split is Dinamo Zagreb 52%, draw 23%, Anderlecht 25%.
What is the most likely score in Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht?
1–1, which comes up in 10.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 56% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.76 for Dinamo Zagreb and 1.15 for Anderlecht.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Zagreb v Anderlecht?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Dinamo Zagreb keep a clean sheet or Anderlecht fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.