Thursday 15 October · 21:00
Ferencvárosi – Viktoria Plzeň
Ferencvárosi
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.04
Viktoria Plzeň
th · attack 1.07 · defence 1.20
Our model makes Ferencvárosi favourites for Ferencvárosi – Viktoria Plzeň, at 50%. Kick-off 15 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, Ferencvárosi win 50% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Viktoria Plzeň win 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.3% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for Ferencvárosi and 1.12 for Viktoria Plzeň, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.63 for Ferencvárosi, 1.12 for Viktoria Plzeň.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ferencvárosi wins; above it, Viktoria Plzeň wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 11 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Ferencvárosi goals in rows, Viktoria Plzeň goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ferencvárosi v Viktoria Plzeň?
Ferencvárosi, at 50%. The full split is Ferencvárosi 50%, draw 24%, Viktoria Plzeň 27%.
What is the most likely score in Ferencvárosi v Viktoria Plzeň?
1–1, which comes up in 11.3% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ferencvárosi v Viktoria Plzeň?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for Ferencvárosi and 1.12 for Viktoria Plzeň.
Will both teams score in Ferencvárosi v Viktoria Plzeň?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Ferencvárosi keep a clean sheet or Viktoria Plzeň fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.