Thursday 15 October · 18:45
Lech Poznań – Bayer 04 Leverkusen
Lech Poznań
2nd · attack 1.31 · defence 0.89
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
5th · attack 1.48 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Lech Poznań favourites for Lech Poznań – Bayer 04 Leverkusen, at 44%. Kick-off 15 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Lech Poznań win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Bayer 04 Leverkusen win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.64 goals for Lech Poznań and 1.32 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.64 for Lech Poznań, 1.32 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lech Poznań wins; above it, Bayer 04 Leverkusen wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Lech Poznań goals in rows, Bayer 04 Leverkusen goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lech Poznań v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Lech Poznań, at 44%. The full split is Lech Poznań 44%, draw 26%, Bayer 04 Leverkusen 30%.
What is the most likely score in Lech Poznań v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lech Poznań v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.64 for Lech Poznań and 1.32 for Bayer 04 Leverkusen.
Will both teams score in Lech Poznań v Bayer 04 Leverkusen?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Lech Poznań keep a clean sheet or Bayer 04 Leverkusen fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.