Thursday 15 October · 18:45
Olympique Lyonnais – Crystal Palace
Olympique Lyonnais
2nd · attack 1.34 · defence 1.04
Crystal Palace
15th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Olympique Lyonnais favourites for Olympique Lyonnais – Crystal Palace, at 44%. Kick-off 15 October 2026, 18:45.
Across the full score distribution, Olympique Lyonnais win 44% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and Crystal Palace win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.52 goals for Olympique Lyonnais and 1.24 for Crystal Palace, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.52 for Olympique Lyonnais, 1.24 for Crystal Palace.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Olympique Lyonnais wins; above it, Crystal Palace wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Olympique Lyonnais goals in rows, Crystal Palace goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Olympique Lyonnais v Crystal Palace?
Olympique Lyonnais, at 44%. The full split is Olympique Lyonnais 44%, draw 24%, Crystal Palace 31%.
What is the most likely score in Olympique Lyonnais v Crystal Palace?
1–1, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Olympique Lyonnais v Crystal Palace?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.52 for Olympique Lyonnais and 1.24 for Crystal Palace.
Will both teams score in Olympique Lyonnais v Crystal Palace?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Olympique Lyonnais keep a clean sheet or Crystal Palace fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.