Thursday 15 October · 21:00
TSG Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş
TSG Hoffenheim
14th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.38
Beşiktaş
3rd · attack 1.38 · defence 0.88
Our model makes TSG Hoffenheim favourites for TSG Hoffenheim – Beşiktaş, at 57%. Kick-off 15 October 2026, 21:00.
Across the full score distribution, TSG Hoffenheim win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Beşiktaş win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.6% of simulations.
We expect 2.12 goals for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.29 for Beşiktaş, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.12 for TSG Hoffenheim, 1.29 for Beşiktaş.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, TSG Hoffenheim wins; above it, Beşiktaş wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 |
TSG Hoffenheim goals in rows, Beşiktaş goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in TSG Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş?
TSG Hoffenheim, at 57%. The full split is TSG Hoffenheim 57%, draw 20%, Beşiktaş 23%.
What is the most likely score in TSG Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş?
2–1, which comes up in 9.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in TSG Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 66% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 85% of the time. Expected goals are 2.12 for TSG Hoffenheim and 1.29 for Beşiktaş.
Will both teams score in TSG Hoffenheim v Beşiktaş?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. TSG Hoffenheim keep a clean sheet or Beşiktaş fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.