Premier League
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | Pts | Title | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 15 | 58% | 0% |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 12 | 31% | 0% |
| 3 |  Brighton & Hove Albion | 10 | 7% | 0% |
| 4 |  Brentford | 9 | 1% | 0% |
| 5 |  Leeds United | 9 | 0% | 1% |
| 6 |  Liverpool | 9 | 2% | 0% |
| 7 |  Everton | 9 | 0% | 2% |
| 8 |  Hull Citypromoted | 8 | 0% | 18% |
| 9 |  Newcastle United | 8 | 0% | 1% |
| 10 |  Chelsea | 7 | 0% | 2% |
| 11 |  Ipswich Townpromoted | 6 | 0% | 56% |
| 12 |  Manchester United | 5 | 0% | 1% |
| 13 |  Nottingham Forest | 5 | 0% | 7% |
| 14 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0% | 23% |
| 15 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | 0% | 26% |
| 16 |  Aston Villa | 4 | 0% | 7% |
| 17 |  AFC Bournemouth | 3 | 0% | 3% |
| 18 |  Coventry Citypromoted | 3 | 0% | 86% |
| 19 |  Fulham | 2 | 0% | 22% |
| 20 |  Tottenham Hotspur | 2 | 0% | 45% |
Upcoming fixtures
Full fixture list →Saturday 10 October · 13:30ArsenalLeeds United58%27%15%Saturday 10 October · 16:00SunderlandBrighton & Hove Albion27%27%45%Saturday 10 October · 16:00Ipswich TownFulham30%27%42%Saturday 10 October · 16:00ChelseaAFC Bournemouth42%26%32%Saturday 10 October · 16:00Aston VillaBrentford37%27%36%Saturday 10 October · 18:30Manchester UnitedTottenham Hotspur60%23%17%
ArsenalLeeds United58%27%15%Saturday 10 October · 16:00SunderlandBrighton & Hove Albion27%27%45%Saturday 10 October · 16:00Ipswich TownFulham30%27%42%Saturday 10 October · 16:00ChelseaAFC Bournemouth42%26%32%Saturday 10 October · 16:00Aston VillaBrentford37%27%36%Saturday 10 October · 18:30Manchester UnitedTottenham Hotspur60%23%17%Latest analysis
FixturePremier LeagueJoão Pedro: one certain fixture, and a date that can slip
The injury feed declares a return on 17 October, the very day of Everton – Chelsea. The absence therefore covers only one fixture for certain, where it costs 1.72 points of win probability. If the date slips, it is a different fixture, and a different figure.
Title racePremier LeagueWho will win the Premier League in 2026-27?
Manchester City and Arsenal are level on points and share 93% of the title. The model separates them on one detail — and England's best defence is not the one you would guess.
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Sent off in the derby, the Englishman misses Sunderland's visit. Our model gives Manchester City 71% without him — and has them going backwards if he came in. This is not a charge against Foden; it is a survey of the area he used to own.