Primeira Liga
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | Pts | Title | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Porto | 21 | 48% | 0% |
| 2 |  Benfica | 16 | 31% | 0% |
| 3 |  Sporting CP | 15 | 21% | 0% |
| 4 |  Santa Clara | 15 | 0% | 0% |
| 5 |  Arouca | 11 | 0% | 2% |
| 6 |  Sporting Braga | 11 | 0% | 0% |
| 7 |  Academico Viseupromoted | 11 | 0% | 2% |
| 8 |  Estrela Amadora | 10 | 0% | 13% |
| 9 |  Gil Vicente | 8 | 0% | 3% |
| 10 |  Alverca | 8 | 0% | 13% |
| 11 |  Marítimopromoted | 8 | 0% | 20% |
| 12 |  Moreirense | 8 | 0% | 6% |
| 13 |  Famalicão | 7 | 0% | 2% |
| 14 |  Vitória Guimarães | 5 | 0% | 4% |
| 15 |  Nacional | 4 | 0% | 43% |
| 16 |  Rio Ave | 4 | 0% | 32% |
| 17 |  Casa Pia | 4 | 0% | 35% |
| 18 |  Estoril | 2 | 0% | 26% |
Upcoming fixtures
Full fixture list →Saturday 10 October · 16:30Casa PiaSanta Clara34%30%37%Saturday 10 October · 19:00MarítimoPorto10%18%72%Saturday 10 October · 21:30Academico ViseuEstoril51%23%26%Sunday 11 October · 16:30Rio AveNacional43%27%30%Sunday 11 October · 19:00BenficaVitória Guimarães74%16%10%Sunday 11 October · 21:30AroucaEstrela Amadora51%24%25%
Casa PiaSanta Clara34%30%37%Saturday 10 October · 19:00MarítimoPorto10%18%72%Saturday 10 October · 21:30Academico ViseuEstoril51%23%26%Sunday 11 October · 16:30Rio AveNacional43%27%30%Sunday 11 October · 19:00BenficaVitória Guimarães74%16%10%Sunday 11 October · 21:30AroucaEstrela Amadora51%24%25%Latest analysis
Title racePrimeira LigaWho will win the Primeira Liga in 2026-27?
Benfica 41.8%, Porto 41.2%. Six tenths of a point separate the two favourites — the tightest race of our six leagues. And the club with Portugal's best attack is neither of them.
MethodPrimeira LigaDid Porto sell Rodrigo Mora too cheaply?
Twenty-five million euros for a nineteen-year-old raised at the club, the thirty-eighth best passer in our database out of two and a half thousand. Our model says sixty. Here is where the gap comes from.
FixturePrimeira LigaPorto face the Clássico without Froholdt, and miss Rodrigo Mora far more
The Dane's absence costs less than a point at the Dragão. The player Porto sold to Roma this summer would be worth four in the same part of the pitch.