Monday 12 October · 19:00
AGF – Sønderjyske Fodbold
AGF
11th · attack 1.19 · defence 1.14
Sønderjyske Fodbold
12th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.42
Our model makes AGF favourites for AGF – Sønderjyske Fodbold, at 62%. Kick-off 12 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, AGF win 62% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Sønderjyske Fodbold win 17%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.0% of simulations.
We expect 2.15 goals for AGF and 1.04 for Sønderjyske Fodbold, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.15 for AGF, 1.04 for Sønderjyske Fodbold.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, AGF wins; above it, Sønderjyske Fodbold wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
AGF goals in rows, Sønderjyske Fodbold goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold?
AGF, at 62%. The full split is AGF 62%, draw 22%, Sønderjyske Fodbold 17%.
What is the most likely score in AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold?
1–1, which comes up in 10.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 62% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 2.15 for AGF and 1.04 for Sønderjyske Fodbold.
Will both teams score in AGF v Sønderjyske Fodbold?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. AGF keep a clean sheet or Sønderjyske Fodbold fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.