Sunday 11 October · 16:00
Brøndby IF – Lyngby Boldklub
Brøndby IF
5th · attack 1.20 · defence 1.04
Lyngby Boldklub
10th · attack 0.82 · defence 1.40
Our model makes Brøndby IF favourites for Brøndby IF – Lyngby Boldklub, at 66%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Brøndby IF win 66% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Lyngby Boldklub win 13%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 11.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.13 goals for Brøndby IF and 0.85 for Lyngby Boldklub, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time and both teams scoring 51%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.13 for Brøndby IF, 0.85 for Lyngby Boldklub.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brøndby IF wins; above it, Lyngby Boldklub wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Brøndby IF goals in rows, Lyngby Boldklub goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brøndby IF v Lyngby Boldklub?
Brøndby IF, at 66%. The full split is Brøndby IF 66%, draw 21%, Lyngby Boldklub 13%.
What is the most likely score in Brøndby IF v Lyngby Boldklub?
2–0, which comes up in 11.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brøndby IF v Lyngby Boldklub?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 57% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 2.13 for Brøndby IF and 0.85 for Lyngby Boldklub.
Will both teams score in Brøndby IF v Lyngby Boldklub?
Both teams score in 51% of simulations. Brøndby IF keep a clean sheet or Lyngby Boldklub fail to score in the remaining 49%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.