Friday 16 October · 19:00
Horsens – Randers FC
Horsens
6th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.39
Randers FC
8th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.17
Our model makes Randers FC favourites for Horsens – Randers FC, at 40%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Horsens win 32% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Randers FC win 40%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.23 goals for Horsens and 1.40 for Randers FC, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time and both teams scoring 54%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.23 for Horsens, 1.40 for Randers FC.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Horsens wins; above it, Randers FC wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Horsens goals in rows, Randers FC goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Horsens v Randers FC?
Randers FC, at 40%. The full split is Horsens 32%, draw 28%, Randers FC 40%.
What is the most likely score in Horsens v Randers FC?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Horsens v Randers FC?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 49% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 1.23 for Horsens and 1.40 for Randers FC.
Will both teams score in Horsens v Randers FC?
Both teams score in 54% of simulations. Horsens keep a clean sheet or Randers FC fail to score in the remaining 46%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.