Sunday 11 October · 14:00
Randers FC – Viborg FF
Randers FC
8th · attack 1.01 · defence 1.17
Viborg FF
3rd · attack 1.08 · defence 1.18
Our model makes Randers FC favourites for Randers FC – Viborg FF, at 42%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Randers FC win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Viborg FF win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.51 goals for Randers FC and 1.26 for Viborg FF, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.51 for Randers FC, 1.26 for Viborg FF.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Randers FC wins; above it, Viborg FF wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | ||||||
| 6 |
Randers FC goals in rows, Viborg FF goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Randers FC v Viborg FF?
Randers FC, at 42%. The full split is Randers FC 42%, draw 27%, Viborg FF 31%.
What is the most likely score in Randers FC v Viborg FF?
1–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Randers FC v Viborg FF?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 1.51 for Randers FC and 1.26 for Viborg FF.
Will both teams score in Randers FC v Viborg FF?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Randers FC keep a clean sheet or Viborg FF fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.