Sunday 11 October · 14:00
Silkeborg IF – Horsens
Silkeborg IF
7th · attack 1.10 · defence 1.27
Horsens
6th · attack 0.83 · defence 1.39
Our model makes Silkeborg IF favourites for Silkeborg IF – Horsens, at 58%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Silkeborg IF win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Horsens win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.95 goals for Silkeborg IF and 1.05 for Horsens, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time and both teams scoring 57%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.95 for Silkeborg IF, 1.05 for Horsens.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Silkeborg IF wins; above it, Horsens wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Silkeborg IF goals in rows, Horsens goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Silkeborg IF v Horsens?
Silkeborg IF, at 58%. The full split is Silkeborg IF 58%, draw 23%, Horsens 19%.
What is the most likely score in Silkeborg IF v Horsens?
1–1, which comes up in 11.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Silkeborg IF v Horsens?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 58% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 81% of the time. Expected goals are 1.95 for Silkeborg IF and 1.05 for Horsens.
Will both teams score in Silkeborg IF v Horsens?
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. Silkeborg IF keep a clean sheet or Horsens fail to score in the remaining 43%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.