Bayern are sixth, and champions in 85% of seasons

Some leagues are tight. The Bundesliga is not one of them, and the model says so without qualification: Bayern Munich are champions in 84% of simulated seasons. Second-placed Dortmund top out at 10%.

An attack out of the ordinary

Bayern post an attack index of 2.22. Translated: they score more than twice as much as an average Bundesliga side against an average defence. No other team in the six leagues we follow reaches that level — not in Portugal, not in Spain, not in England.

Their defence, at 0.91, is also above average without being exceptional. It is the attack that makes the difference, and it is the attack that makes the title so likely: a side that scores that much does not need to shut everything down to win its matches.

Why sixth place changes nothing

Bayern are 6^th on 10 points after two matchdays. Two matchdays. At that stage the table is barely more than noise: there are more possible configurations after two matchdays than there are teams, and sitting sixth after a draw and a win requires no improbable sequence at all.

The projection confirms it: the model puts Bayern on 78.9 points at season's end. A side heading for that total does not need a good start; it needs thirty-two matchdays.

Where each team finishes

The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.

123456789101112131415161718FC Bayern München8711Borussia Dortmund1158197Bayer 04 Leverkusen183420127RB Leipzig616201612975VfB Stuttgart1015171512975SC Freiburg71214141311875Elversberg591010101088765FSV Mainz 05581011111110976Eintracht Frankfurt57911111110976FC Augsburg67910101110976TSG Hoffenheim579101111109865Werder Bremen68911111110875Schalke 0456788910101111Paderborn566789111315FC Köln57911121314129Borussia Mönchengladbach568101213131312FC Union Berlin681013151818Hamburger SV56811141928

The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.

The real race is behind

If the title is barely contested, the rest is more open. Dortmund are second on strength as well as in the table, which is rare after two matchdays and suggests a start in line with their level. Leverkusen and Stuttgart follow, both rated higher on strength than on points.

That is where the German season will be decided: not on the title, but on the European places, where three or four clubs of comparable level will compete for fewer places than there are of them.