Champions League
Fixtures for the next three weeks and their model probabilities. A cup is not projected like a league: there is no title probability outside the Champions League simulation.
Latest analysis
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MethodIs PSG the Champions League favourite? Our two models rank it 1st and 10th
Our two models each replayed the 2026-2027 Champions League 50,000 times from the same 18 matches already played, and their rankings correlate at 0.944. On PSG, one gives a 24.5% title chance, the other 2.2%. The whole gap comes down to one question of method: should a squad be judged by its league's average?
Title raceWho will win the Champions League in 2026-27?
Arsenal lift the trophy in 25% of simulations, ahead of Manchester City and Bayern. Real Madrid fall to 4%, PSG to 2.2%. Here is the full simulation of the 144-match league phase and the knockout bracket.
MethodWhoever created more clear chances won all six matches. That proves almost nothing.
Six Champions League fixtures last night, and a perfect record on one statistic — while possession says nothing at all. What the match data shows, and what it cannot show.
Upcoming
18 fixtures
League phase table
Full table →| # | Club | P | W | D | L | Goals | Diff | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Paris Saint Germain | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6–1 | +5 | 3 |
| 2 |  FC Bayern München | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5–0 | +5 | 3 |
| 3 |  FC Barcelona | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5–1 | +4 | 3 |
| 4 |  Manchester United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4–0 | +4 | 3 |
| 5 |  Como | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4–1 | +3 | 3 |
| 6 |  Sporting CP | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3–1 | +2 | 3 |
| 7 |  VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3–1 | +2 | 3 |
| 8 |  Manchester City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2–0 | +2 | 3 |