Champions League

Analysis — Champions League

Short pieces built on the same computations as the tables. The figures in them are not copied out: they follow the model.

Method

Is PSG the Champions League favourite? Our two models rank it 1st and 10th

Our two models each replayed the 2026-2027 Champions League 50,000 times from the same 18 matches already played, and their rankings correlate at 0.944. On PSG, one gives a 24.5% title chance, the other 2.2%. The whole gap comes down to one question of method: should a squad be judged by its league's average?

26 September · 10 minTitle race

Who will win the Champions League in 2026-27?

Arsenal lift the trophy in 25% of simulations, ahead of Manchester City and Bayern. Real Madrid fall to 4%, PSG to 2.2%. Here is the full simulation of the 144-match league phase and the knockout bracket.

20 September · 8 minMethod

Whoever created more clear chances won all six matches. That proves almost nothing.

Six Champions League fixtures last night, and a perfect record on one statistic — while possession says nothing at all. What the match data shows, and what it cannot show.

9 September · 7 min