La Liga 2
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 6 October 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
6 October 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  SD Eibar | 8 | 21 | +11 | 36% | 77.5 | 0% |
| 2 |  Castellón | 8 | 20 | +12 | 30% | 76.2 | 0% |
| 3 |  Almería | 8 | 18 | +8 | 16% | 72.9 | 0% |
| 4 |  Gironapromoted | 8 | 14 | +6 | 7% | 67.2 | 1% |
| 5 |  Mallorcapromoted | 8 | 14 | +5 | 5% | 65.4 | 1% |
| 6 |  Burgos | 8 | 14 | +3 | 2% | 63.4 | 1% |
| 7 |  Sabadellpromoted | 8 | 13 | +2 | 1% | 61.4 | 2% |
| 8 |  Sporting Gijón | 8 | 13 | 0 | 1% | 61.0 | 3% |
| 9 |  Granada | 8 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 57.4 | 8% |
| 10 |  Real Oviedopromoted | 8 | 11 | 0 | 1% | 59.9 | 6% |
| 11 |  Las Palmas | 8 | 11 | -1 | 1% | 59.9 | 4% |
| 12 |  Tenerifepromoted | 8 | 11 | -2 | 0% | 53.6 | 19% |
| 13 |  Leganés | 8 | 11 | -5 | 0% | 52.5 | 21% |
| 14 |  Real Valladolid | 8 | 9 | -3 | 0% | 49.9 | 31% |
| 15 |  Córdoba | 8 | 9 | -5 | 0% | 51.3 | 25% |
| 16 |  Real Sociedad II | 8 | 8 | -2 | 0% | 49.6 | 31% |
| 17 |  Eldensepromoted | 8 | 8 | -2 | 0% | 49.6 | 32% |
| 18 |  Celta Fortunapromoted | 8 | 8 | -4 | 0% | 50.5 | 30% |
| 19 |  Cádiz | 8 | 7 | +1 | 0% | 46.5 | 45% |
| 20 |  FC Andorra | 8 | 7 | -3 | 0% | 53.3 | 18% |
| 21 |  Ceuta | 8 | 5 | -11 | 0% | 41.9 | 69% |
| 22 |  Albacete | 8 | 1 | -10 | 0% | 45.0 | 53% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 3,200 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
12345678910111213141516171819202122SD Eibar36231596Castellón3023161175Almería161918141075Girona7101212119865Mallorca5810111098765Burgos7910101098765Sabadell6899988765Sporting Gijón67999887655Las Palmas57788887765Real Oviedo677877776555Granada566778777665Tenerife5666777776655FC Andorra5566777777665Leganés5567778887765Córdoba5567788887765Celta Fortuna556667777789Real Valladolid556777899986Real Sociedad II556778888886Eldense56778899986Cádiz55678910111212Albacete667910121416Ceuta579121730
SD Eibar36231596Castellón3023161175Almería161918141075Girona7101212119865Mallorca5810111098765Burgos7910101098765Sabadell6899988765Sporting Gijón67999887655Las Palmas57788887765Real Oviedo677877776555Granada566778777665Tenerife5666777776655FC Andorra5566777777665Leganés5567778887765Córdoba5567788887765Celta Fortuna556667777789Real Valladolid556777899986Real Sociedad II556778888886Eldense56778899986Cádiz55678910111212Albacete667910121416Ceuta579121730The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
SD Eibar2.7eAlmería3.6eCastellón2.8e