Saturday 10 October · 16:15 · 8th matchday
Deportivo Alavés – Atlético de Madrid
Deportivo Alavés
6th · attack 0.95 · defence 1.01
Atlético de Madrid
2nd · attack 1.46 · defence 0.82
Our model makes Atlético de Madrid favourites for Deportivo Alavés – Atlético de Madrid, at 47%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:15.
Across the full score distribution, Deportivo Alavés win 27% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Atlético de Madrid win 47%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.05 goals for Deportivo Alavés and 1.48 for Atlético de Madrid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.05 for Deportivo Alavés, 1.48 for Atlético de Madrid.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Deportivo Alavés wins; above it, Atlético de Madrid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 2 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | ||
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Deportivo Alavés goals in rows, Atlético de Madrid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Deportivo Alavés v Atlético de Madrid?
Atlético de Madrid, at 47%. The full split is Deportivo Alavés 27%, draw 26%, Atlético de Madrid 47%.
What is the most likely score in Deportivo Alavés v Atlético de Madrid?
1–1, which comes up in 12.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Deportivo Alavés v Atlético de Madrid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.05 for Deportivo Alavés and 1.48 for Atlético de Madrid.
Will both teams score in Deportivo Alavés v Atlético de Madrid?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Deportivo Alavés keep a clean sheet or Atlético de Madrid fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.