Saturday 10 October · 18:30 · 8th matchday
FC Barcelona – Getafe
FC Barcelona
1st · attack 2.11 · defence 0.79
Getafe
11th · attack 0.70 · defence 0.82
Our model makes FC Barcelona favourites for FC Barcelona – Getafe, at 77%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:30.
Across the full score distribution, FC Barcelona win 77% of the time, the draw comes up 16% and Getafe win 7%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 15.2% of simulations.
We expect 2.32 goals for FC Barcelona and 0.55 for Getafe, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 38%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.32 for FC Barcelona, 0.55 for Getafe.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, FC Barcelona wins; above it, Getafe wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 2 | 15 | 8 | 2 | ||||
| 3 | 12 | 7 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 3 | 2 | |||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
FC Barcelona goals in rows, Getafe goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in FC Barcelona v Getafe?
FC Barcelona, at 77%. The full split is FC Barcelona 77%, draw 16%, Getafe 7%.
What is the most likely score in FC Barcelona v Getafe?
2–0, which comes up in 15.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in FC Barcelona v Getafe?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 2.32 for FC Barcelona and 0.55 for Getafe.
Will both teams score in FC Barcelona v Getafe?
Both teams score in 38% of simulations. FC Barcelona keep a clean sheet or Getafe fail to score in the remaining 62%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.