Saturday 10 October · 14:00 · 8th matchday
Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club
Rayo Vallecano
12th · attack 0.93 · defence 0.99
Athletic Club
10th · attack 1.04 · defence 0.90
Our model makes Rayo Vallecano favourites for Rayo Vallecano – Athletic Club, at 37% — but only 4.7% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Rayo Vallecano win 37% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Athletic Club win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.6% of simulations.
We expect 1.12 goals for Rayo Vallecano and 1.03 for Athletic Club, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.12 for Rayo Vallecano, 1.03 for Athletic Club.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rayo Vallecano wins; above it, Athletic Club wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 13 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rayo Vallecano goals in rows, Athletic Club goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club?
Rayo Vallecano, at 37%. The full split is Rayo Vallecano 37%, draw 30%, Athletic Club 33%.
What is the most likely score in Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club?
1–1, which comes up in 13.6% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 36% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 64% of the time. Expected goals are 1.12 for Rayo Vallecano and 1.03 for Athletic Club.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Rayo Vallecano keep a clean sheet or Athletic Club fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.