Saturday 10 October · 20:45 · 6th matchday
Brest – Angers SCO
Brest
11th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.22
Angers SCO
7th · attack 0.77 · defence 1.21
Our model makes Brest favourites for Brest – Angers SCO, at 53%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Brest win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Angers SCO win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.61 goals for Brest and 0.93 for Angers SCO, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.61 for Brest, 0.93 for Angers SCO.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Brest wins; above it, Angers SCO wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 12 | 12 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Brest goals in rows, Angers SCO goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Brest v Angers SCO?
Brest, at 53%. The full split is Brest 53%, draw 26%, Angers SCO 21%.
What is the most likely score in Brest v Angers SCO?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Brest v Angers SCO?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.61 for Brest and 0.93 for Angers SCO.
Will both teams score in Brest v Angers SCO?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Brest keep a clean sheet or Angers SCO fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.