Saturday 10 October · 20:45 · 6th matchday
Monaco – Toulouse
Monaco
1st · attack 1.42 · defence 1.07
Toulouse
13th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.13
Our model makes Monaco favourites for Monaco – Toulouse, at 57%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Monaco win 57% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Toulouse win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 10.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.98 goals for Monaco and 1.12 for Toulouse, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time and both teams scoring 59%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.98 for Monaco, 1.12 for Toulouse.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Monaco wins; above it, Toulouse wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Monaco goals in rows, Toulouse goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Monaco v Toulouse?
Monaco, at 57%. The full split is Monaco 57%, draw 23%, Toulouse 21%.
What is the most likely score in Monaco v Toulouse?
1–1, which comes up in 10.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Monaco v Toulouse?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 60% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.98 for Monaco and 1.12 for Toulouse.
Will both teams score in Monaco v Toulouse?
Both teams score in 59% of simulations. Monaco keep a clean sheet or Toulouse fail to score in the remaining 41%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.