Saturday 10 October · 13:30 · 6th matchday
Arsenal – Leeds United
Arsenal
2nd · attack 1.36 · defence 0.68
Leeds United
5th · attack 1.05 · defence 0.98
Our model makes Arsenal favourites for Arsenal – Leeds United, at 58%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Arsenal win 58% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Leeds United win 15%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 14.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.63 goals for Arsenal and 0.72 for Leeds United, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.63 for Arsenal, 0.72 for Leeds United.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Arsenal wins; above it, Leeds United wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 14 | 12 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Arsenal goals in rows, Leeds United goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Arsenal v Leeds United?
Arsenal, at 58%. The full split is Arsenal 58%, draw 27%, Leeds United 15%.
What is the most likely score in Arsenal v Leeds United?
1–0, which comes up in 14.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Arsenal v Leeds United?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.63 for Arsenal and 0.72 for Leeds United.
Will both teams score in Arsenal v Leeds United?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Arsenal keep a clean sheet or Leeds United fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.