Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 6th matchday
Aston Villa – Brentford
Aston Villa
16th · attack 1.15 · defence 1.16
Brentford
4th · attack 1.24 · defence 1.05
Our model makes Aston Villa favourites for Aston Villa – Brentford, at 37% — but only 1.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Aston Villa win 37% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Brentford win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Aston Villa and 1.43 for Brentford, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Aston Villa, 1.43 for Brentford.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Aston Villa wins; above it, Brentford wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 7 | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Aston Villa goals in rows, Brentford goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Aston Villa v Brentford?
Aston Villa, at 37%. The full split is Aston Villa 37%, draw 27%, Brentford 36%.
What is the most likely score in Aston Villa v Brentford?
1–1, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Aston Villa v Brentford?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 55% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 80% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Aston Villa and 1.43 for Brentford.
Will both teams score in Aston Villa v Brentford?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet or Brentford fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.