Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 6th matchday
Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth
Chelsea
10th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.26
AFC Bournemouth
17th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.09
Our model makes Chelsea favourites for Chelsea – AFC Bournemouth, at 42%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Chelsea win 42% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and AFC Bournemouth win 32%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.68 goals for Chelsea and 1.46 for AFC Bournemouth, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time and both teams scoring 64%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.68 for Chelsea, 1.46 for AFC Bournemouth.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Chelsea wins; above it, AFC Bournemouth wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Chelsea goals in rows, AFC Bournemouth goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth?
Chelsea, at 42%. The full split is Chelsea 42%, draw 26%, AFC Bournemouth 32%.
What is the most likely score in Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth?
1–1, which comes up in 11.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 61% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 83% of the time. Expected goals are 1.68 for Chelsea and 1.46 for AFC Bournemouth.
Will both teams score in Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth?
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. Chelsea keep a clean sheet or AFC Bournemouth fail to score in the remaining 36%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.