Saturday 17 October · 13:30 · 7th matchday
Everton – Chelsea
Everton
7th · attack 0.95 · defence 0.98
Chelsea
10th · attack 1.27 · defence 1.26
Our model makes Everton favourites for Everton – Chelsea, at 41%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 13:30.
Across the full score distribution, Everton win 41% of the time, the draw comes up 28% and Chelsea win 31%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Everton and 1.24 for Chelsea, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 56%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Everton, 1.24 for Chelsea.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Everton wins; above it, Chelsea wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Everton goals in rows, Chelsea goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Everton v Chelsea?
Everton, at 41%. The full split is Everton 41%, draw 28%, Chelsea 31%.
What is the most likely score in Everton v Chelsea?
1–1, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton v Chelsea?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Everton and 1.24 for Chelsea.
Will both teams score in Everton v Chelsea?
Both teams score in 56% of simulations. Everton keep a clean sheet or Chelsea fail to score in the remaining 44%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.