Saturday 17 October · 16:00 · 7th matchday
Fulham – Hull City
Fulham
19th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.10
Hull City
8th · attack 0.83 · defence 0.99
Our model makes Fulham favourites for Fulham – Hull City, at 39%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Fulham win 39% of the time, the draw comes up 33% and Hull City win 28%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.13 goals for Fulham and 0.92 for Hull City, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time and both teams scoring 42%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.13 for Fulham, 0.92 for Hull City.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Fulham wins; above it, Hull City wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Fulham goals in rows, Hull City goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Fulham v Hull City?
Fulham, at 39%. The full split is Fulham 39%, draw 33%, Hull City 28%.
What is the most likely score in Fulham v Hull City?
1–1, which comes up in 14.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Fulham v Hull City?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 34% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 62% of the time. Expected goals are 1.13 for Fulham and 0.92 for Hull City.
Will both teams score in Fulham v Hull City?
Both teams score in 42% of simulations. Fulham keep a clean sheet or Hull City fail to score in the remaining 58%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.