Saturday 10 October · 16:00 · 6th matchday
Ipswich Town – Fulham
Ipswich Town
11th · attack 0.96 · defence 1.65
Fulham
19th · attack 0.94 · defence 1.10
Our model makes Fulham favourites for Ipswich Town – Fulham, at 42%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 16:00.
Across the full score distribution, Ipswich Town win 30% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Fulham win 42%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.28 goals for Ipswich Town and 1.55 for Fulham, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.28 for Ipswich Town, 1.55 for Fulham.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ipswich Town wins; above it, Fulham wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 6 | 13 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Ipswich Town goals in rows, Fulham goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ipswich Town v Fulham?
Fulham, at 42%. The full split is Ipswich Town 30%, draw 27%, Fulham 42%.
What is the most likely score in Ipswich Town v Fulham?
1–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ipswich Town v Fulham?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.28 for Ipswich Town and 1.55 for Fulham.
Will both teams score in Ipswich Town v Fulham?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Ipswich Town keep a clean sheet or Fulham fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.