Premiership
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: not publishedMatch probabilities: not publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 2.00 | 0.57 | 1.82 | 0.73 |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 1.64 | 0.83 |
| 3 |  Hearts | 7 | 13 | 14 | 8 | 2.00 | 1.14 | 1.18 | 0.91 |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.39 |
| 5 |  St. Mirren | 7 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 1.14 | 1.29 | 0.83 | 1.15 |
| 6 |  St. Johnstonepromoted | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 1.29 | 1.43 | 0.71 | 1.24 |
| 7 |  Aberdeen | 7 | 8 | 7 | 8 | 1.00 | 1.14 | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| 8 |  Dundee United | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 1.29 | 1.57 | 0.91 | 1.23 |
| 9 |  Motherwell | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 1.29 | 1.57 | 1.07 | 1.09 |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 7 | 8 | 11 | 1.14 | 1.57 | 1.13 | 1.05 |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 6 | 6 | 9 | 0.86 | 1.29 | 1.00 | 1.21 |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 5 | 6 | 15 | 0.86 | 2.14 | 0.95 | 1.32 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.