Saturday 10 October · 19:00 · 8th matchday
Marítimo – Porto
Marítimo
11th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.23
Porto
1st · attack 1.72 · defence 0.59
Our model makes Porto favourites for Marítimo – Porto, at 72%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 19:00.
Across the full score distribution, Marítimo win 10% of the time, the draw comes up 18% and Porto win 72%. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2, in 14.2% of simulations.
We expect 0.64 goals for Marítimo and 2.11 for Porto, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 41%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 0.64 for Marítimo, 2.11 for Porto.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Marítimo wins; above it, Porto wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 1 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 4 | |||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Marítimo goals in rows, Porto goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Marítimo v Porto?
Porto, at 72%. The full split is Marítimo 10%, draw 18%, Porto 72%.
What is the most likely score in Marítimo v Porto?
0–2, which comes up in 14.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Marítimo v Porto?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 76% of the time. Expected goals are 0.64 for Marítimo and 2.11 for Porto.
Will both teams score in Marítimo v Porto?
Both teams score in 41% of simulations. Marítimo keep a clean sheet or Porto fail to score in the remaining 59%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.