Sunday 11 October · 16:30 · 8th matchday
Rio Ave – Nacional
Rio Ave
16th · attack 0.92 · defence 1.18
Nacional
15th · attack 0.89 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Rio Ave favourites for Rio Ave – Nacional, at 43%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Rio Ave win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Nacional win 30%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 12.9% of simulations.
We expect 1.32 goals for Rio Ave and 1.04 for Nacional, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time and both teams scoring 47%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.32 for Rio Ave, 1.04 for Nacional.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rio Ave wins; above it, Nacional wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 1 | 13 | 13 | 7 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 9 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rio Ave goals in rows, Nacional goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rio Ave v Nacional?
Rio Ave, at 43%. The full split is Rio Ave 43%, draw 27%, Nacional 30%.
What is the most likely score in Rio Ave v Nacional?
1–0, which comes up in 12.9% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rio Ave v Nacional?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 42% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 68% of the time. Expected goals are 1.32 for Rio Ave and 1.04 for Nacional.
Will both teams score in Rio Ave v Nacional?
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Rio Ave keep a clean sheet or Nacional fail to score in the remaining 53%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.