Saturday 17 October · 20:45 · 7th matchday
Roma – Genoa
Roma
1st · attack 1.51 · defence 0.78
Genoa
19th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.19
Our model makes Roma favourites for Roma – Genoa, at 68%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 20:45.
Across the full score distribution, Roma win 68% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Genoa win 12%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–0, in 13.5% of simulations.
We expect 2.00 goals for Roma and 0.71 for Genoa, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time and both teams scoring 44%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.00 for Roma, 0.71 for Genoa.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Roma wins; above it, Genoa wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 6 | 1 |
Roma goals in rows, Genoa goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Roma v Genoa?
Roma, at 68%. The full split is Roma 68%, draw 20%, Genoa 12%.
What is the most likely score in Roma v Genoa?
1–0, which comes up in 13.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Roma v Genoa?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 51% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 75% of the time. Expected goals are 2.00 for Roma and 0.71 for Genoa.
Will both teams score in Roma v Genoa?
Both teams score in 44% of simulations. Roma keep a clean sheet or Genoa fail to score in the remaining 56%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.