Serie B
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
Table and projections
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | Diff | Title | Projected points | Relegation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 5 | 13 | +5 | 40% | 67.2 | 0% |
| 2 |  Südtirol | 5 | 11 | +6 | 8% | 57.7 | 2% |
| 3 |  Mantova | 5 | 11 | +5 | 7% | 57.4 | 2% |
| 4 |  Modena | 5 | 10 | +4 | 12% | 60.2 | 1% |
| 5 |  Ascolipromoted | 5 | 10 | +3 | 8% | 58.6 | 2% |
| 6 |  Hellas Veronapromoted | 5 | 7 | +3 | 9% | 55.7 | 8% |
| 7 |  Cesena | 5 | 7 | +1 | 0% | 48.4 | 17% |
| 8 |  Avellino | 5 | 7 | +1 | 1% | 49.0 | 17% |
| 9 |  Beneventopromoted | 5 | 7 | +1 | 4% | 54.4 | 5% |
| 10 |  Pisapromoted | 5 | 7 | 0 | 4% | 52.8 | 11% |
| 11 |  Calcio Padova | 5 | 7 | -1 | 1% | 50.8 | 10% |
| 12 |  Empoli | 5 | 6 | -2 | 0% | 47.6 | 20% |
| 13 |  Arezzopromoted | 5 | 6 | -7 | 1% | 43.5 | 43% |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 5 | 5 | +1 | 1% | 48.8 | 18% |
| 15 |  Cremonesepromoted | 5 | 5 | -2 | 1% | 49.3 | 17% |
| 16 |  Vicenzapromoted | 5 | 5 | -3 | 1% | 48.2 | 20% |
| 17 |  Juve Stabia | 5 | 5 | -3 | 1% | 49.2 | 15% |
| 18 |  Sampdoria | 5 | 4 | -4 | 0% | 44.3 | 34% |
| 19 |  Catanzaro | 5 | 3 | -4 | 2% | 52.3 | 8% |
| 20 |  Carrarese | 5 | 1 | -4 | 0% | 41.1 | 50% |
50,000 simulated seasons from a Dixon-Coles model fitted on 2,681 matches, weighted so that recent ones count more.
Where each team finishes
The probability of finishing in each position, across the 50,000 simulated seasons. A tight row is a team whose fate is nearly settled; a spread-out row, a team for whom anything is still possible.
1234567891011121314151617181920Palermo40201286Modena1214121198655Ascoli8111110987655Südtirol810109987665Mantova791099887655Hellas Verona99876665555Benevento6677777766655Pisa556666666555555Catanzaro55677777666655Calcio Padova55667777776655Cremonese5566666666666Juve Stabia5566677777665Virtus Entella55566666666665Avellino5556666777766Cesena556677777776Vicenza5566677777776Empoli566777788875Arezzo556791223Sampdoria55678910111211Carrarese556810121622
Palermo40201286Modena1214121198655Ascoli8111110987655Südtirol810109987665Mantova791099887655Hellas Verona99876665555Benevento6677777766655Pisa556666666555555Catanzaro55677777666655Calcio Padova55667777776655Cremonese5566666666666Juve Stabia5566677777665Virtus Entella55566666666665Avellino5556666777766Cesena556677777776Vicenza5566677777776Empoli566777788875Arezzo556791223Sampdoria55678910111211Carrarese556810121622The darker the cell, the likelier the position. Teams are ordered by average expected position, not by current standing.
Where each team is heading
Average expected position at each matchday. Left of the marker, what actually happened; right of it, the projection.
Modena5.3eAscoli5.8ePalermo2.5e