Serie B
Team strengths: publishedSeason projection: publishedMatch probabilities: publishedComputed on 27 September 2026
The teams
On the left, what happened; on the right, what the model makes of it. Goals per match are observed averages; attack and defence are estimates, adjusted for the quality of the opponents faced.
Computed on
27 September 2026
| Team | P | Pts | GF | GA | GF/m | GA/m | Attack | Defence | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palermo | 5 | 13 | 10 | 5 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.21 | 0.92 |
| 2 |  Südtirol | 5 | 11 | 9 | 3 | 1.80 | 0.60 | 0.95 | 0.95 |
| 3 |  Mantova | 5 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 1.10 |
| 4 |  Modena | 5 | 10 | 8 | 4 | 1.60 | 0.80 | 1.02 | 0.91 |
| 5 |  Ascolipromoted | 5 | 10 | 7 | 4 | 1.40 | 0.80 | 1.02 | 0.92 |
| 6 |  Hellas Veronapromoted | 5 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 2.00 | 1.40 | 1.16 | 1.09 |
| 7 |  Cesena | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 0.96 | 1.15 |
| 8 |  Avellino | 5 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 0.94 | 1.06 |
| 9 |  Beneventopromoted | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 1.20 | 1.00 | 0.99 | 0.96 |
| 10 |  Pisapromoted | 5 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 1.60 | 1.60 | 1.10 | 1.12 |
| 11 |  Calcio Padova | 5 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1.00 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.01 |
| 12 |  Empoli | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.80 | 1.20 | 0.90 | 1.06 |
| 13 |  Arezzopromoted | 5 | 6 | 6 | 13 | 1.20 | 2.60 | 1.01 | 1.47 |
| 14 |  Virtus Entella | 5 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 0.93 | 1.03 |
| 15 |  Cremonesepromoted | 5 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 1.00 | 1.40 | 0.97 | 1.09 |
| 16 |  Vicenzapromoted | 5 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 1.40 | 2.00 | 1.03 | 1.22 |
| 17 |  Juve Stabia | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0.80 | 1.40 | 0.92 | 1.01 |
| 18 |  Sampdoria | 5 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 0.85 | 1.06 |
| 19 |  Catanzaro | 5 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 1.00 | 1.80 | 1.17 | 1.12 |
| 20 |  Carrarese | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0.40 | 1.20 | 0.83 | 1.05 |
A promoted side that has played three matches does not carry three matches of information: its estimate is shrunk towards the average level of a promoted side, measured over 97 promotions observed since 2019.