Sunday 11 October · 14:00
Grasshopper – Young Boys
Grasshopper
10th · attack 0.85 · defence 1.60
Young Boys
2nd · attack 1.48 · defence 1.43
Our model makes Young Boys favourites for Grasshopper – Young Boys, at 56%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:00.
Across the full score distribution, Grasshopper win 25% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Young Boys win 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–2, in 8.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.54 goals for Grasshopper and 2.36 for Young Boys, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time and both teams scoring 71%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.54 for Grasshopper, 2.36 for Young Boys.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Grasshopper wins; above it, Young Boys wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 |
| 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Grasshopper goals in rows, Young Boys goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Grasshopper v Young Boys?
Young Boys, at 56%. The full split is Grasshopper 25%, draw 20%, Young Boys 56%.
What is the most likely score in Grasshopper v Young Boys?
1–2, which comes up in 8.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Grasshopper v Young Boys?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 75% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 90% of the time. Expected goals are 1.54 for Grasshopper and 2.36 for Young Boys.
Will both teams score in Grasshopper v Young Boys?
Both teams score in 71% of simulations. Grasshopper keep a clean sheet or Young Boys fail to score in the remaining 29%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.