Saturday 10 October · 18:00
Lugano – Luzern
Lugano
1st · attack 1.15 · defence 0.97
Luzern
6th · attack 1.16 · defence 1.50
Our model makes Lugano favourites for Lugano – Luzern, at 61%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Lugano win 61% of the time, the draw comes up 20% and Luzern win 19%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–1, in 9.8% of simulations.
We expect 2.18 goals for Lugano and 1.12 for Luzern, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.18 for Lugano, 1.12 for Luzern.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Lugano wins; above it, Luzern wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 2 | |||
| 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 6 | 1 | 1 |
Lugano goals in rows, Luzern goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Lugano v Luzern?
Lugano, at 61%. The full split is Lugano 61%, draw 20%, Luzern 19%.
What is the most likely score in Lugano v Luzern?
2–1, which comes up in 9.8% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Lugano v Luzern?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 64% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 84% of the time. Expected goals are 2.18 for Lugano and 1.12 for Luzern.
Will both teams score in Lugano v Luzern?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. Lugano keep a clean sheet or Luzern fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.