Saturday 10 October · 18:00
Servette – Sion
Servette
8th · attack 1.05 · defence 1.24
Sion
3rd · attack 1.13 · defence 1.08
Our model makes Servette favourites for Servette – Sion, at 38% — but only 2.2% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Servette win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Sion win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.45 goals for Servette and 1.40 for Sion, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 58%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.45 for Servette, 1.40 for Sion.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Servette wins; above it, Sion wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Servette goals in rows, Sion goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Servette v Sion?
Servette, at 38%. The full split is Servette 38%, draw 25%, Sion 36%.
What is the most likely score in Servette v Sion?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Servette v Sion?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.45 for Servette and 1.40 for Sion.
Will both teams score in Servette v Sion?
Both teams score in 58% of simulations. Servette keep a clean sheet or Sion fail to score in the remaining 42%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.