Sunday 11 October · 16:30
Vaduz – Basel
Vaduz
11th · attack 1.11 · defence 1.58
Basel
4th · attack 1.08 · defence 1.35
Our model makes Vaduz favourites for Vaduz – Basel, at 43%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 16:30.
Across the full score distribution, Vaduz win 43% of the time, the draw comes up 22% and Basel win 35%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.90 goals for Vaduz and 1.70 for Basel, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time and both teams scoring 70%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.90 for Vaduz, 1.70 for Basel.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Vaduz wins; above it, Basel wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | ||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
Vaduz goals in rows, Basel goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Vaduz v Basel?
Vaduz, at 43%. The full split is Vaduz 43%, draw 22%, Basel 35%.
What is the most likely score in Vaduz v Basel?
1–1, which comes up in 9.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Vaduz v Basel?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 70% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 88% of the time. Expected goals are 1.90 for Vaduz and 1.70 for Basel.
Will both teams score in Vaduz v Basel?
Both teams score in 70% of simulations. Vaduz keep a clean sheet or Basel fail to score in the remaining 30%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.