Saturday 10 October · 18:00
Zürich – Thun
Zürich
7th · attack 0.90 · defence 1.49
Thun
9th · attack 1.19 · defence 1.45
Our model makes Thun favourites for Zürich – Thun, at 41% — but only 4.9% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 18:00.
Across the full score distribution, Zürich win 36% of the time, the draw comes up 23% and Thun win 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 9.7% of simulations.
We expect 1.66 goals for Zürich and 1.78 for Thun, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time and both teams scoring 68%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.66 for Zürich, 1.78 for Thun.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Zürich wins; above it, Thun wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 5 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 2 | 4 | 8 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Zürich goals in rows, Thun goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Zürich v Thun?
Thun, at 41%. The full split is Zürich 36%, draw 23%, Thun 41%.
What is the most likely score in Zürich v Thun?
1–1, which comes up in 9.7% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Zürich v Thun?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 67% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 86% of the time. Expected goals are 1.66 for Zürich and 1.78 for Thun.
Will both teams score in Zürich v Thun?
Both teams score in 68% of simulations. Zürich keep a clean sheet or Thun fail to score in the remaining 32%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Sunday 27 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.