Saturday 17 October · 17:00
Austria Lustenau – LASK
Austria Lustenau
8th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.29
LASK
3rd · attack 1.37 · defence 0.98
Our model makes LASK favourites for Austria Lustenau – LASK, at 53%. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 17:00.
Across the full score distribution, Austria Lustenau win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and LASK win 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.2% of simulations.
We expect 1.05 goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.76 for LASK, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.05 for Austria Lustenau, 1.76 for LASK.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Austria Lustenau wins; above it, LASK wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Austria Lustenau goals in rows, LASK goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Austria Lustenau v LASK?
LASK, at 53%. The full split is Austria Lustenau 21%, draw 26%, LASK 53%.
What is the most likely score in Austria Lustenau v LASK?
1–1, which comes up in 12.2% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Austria Lustenau v LASK?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.05 for Austria Lustenau and 1.76 for LASK.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau v LASK?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Austria Lustenau keep a clean sheet or LASK fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.