Saturday 10 October · 19:30
Austria Wien – Sturm Graz
Austria Wien
10th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.12
Sturm Graz
4th · attack 1.20 · defence 0.92
Our model makes Sturm Graz favourites for Austria Wien – Sturm Graz, at 39%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 19:30.
Across the full score distribution, Austria Wien win 31% of the time, the draw comes up 29% and Sturm Graz win 39%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.17 goals for Austria Wien and 1.34 for Sturm Graz, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.17 for Austria Wien, 1.34 for Sturm Graz.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Austria Wien wins; above it, Sturm Graz wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 8 | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Austria Wien goals in rows, Sturm Graz goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Austria Wien v Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz, at 39%. The full split is Austria Wien 31%, draw 29%, Sturm Graz 39%.
What is the most likely score in Austria Wien v Sturm Graz?
1–1, which comes up in 14.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Austria Wien v Sturm Graz?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 46% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 73% of the time. Expected goals are 1.17 for Austria Wien and 1.34 for Sturm Graz.
Will both teams score in Austria Wien v Sturm Graz?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Austria Wien keep a clean sheet or Sturm Graz fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.