Saturday 10 October · 17:00
Grazer AK – Salzburg
Grazer AK
9th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.29
Salzburg
2nd · attack 1.40 · defence 0.91
Our model makes Salzburg favourites for Grazer AK – Salzburg, at 54%. Kick-off 10 October 2026, 17:00.
Across the full score distribution, Grazer AK win 21% of the time, the draw comes up 25% and Salzburg win 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.05 goals for Grazer AK and 1.81 for Salzburg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.05 for Grazer AK, 1.81 for Salzburg.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Grazer AK wins; above it, Salzburg wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 1 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | |
| 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | ||||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Grazer AK goals in rows, Salzburg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Grazer AK v Salzburg?
Salzburg, at 54%. The full split is Grazer AK 21%, draw 25%, Salzburg 54%.
What is the most likely score in Grazer AK v Salzburg?
1–1, which comes up in 12.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Grazer AK v Salzburg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 54% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 79% of the time. Expected goals are 1.05 for Grazer AK and 1.81 for Salzburg.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK v Salzburg?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. Grazer AK keep a clean sheet or Salzburg fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.