Sunday 11 October · 14:30
Hartberg – Austria Lustenau
Hartberg
6th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.13
Austria Lustenau
8th · attack 0.84 · defence 1.29
Our model makes Hartberg favourites for Hartberg – Austria Lustenau, at 52%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, Hartberg win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 27% and Austria Lustenau win 21%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 13.0% of simulations.
We expect 1.61 goals for Hartberg and 0.95 for Austria Lustenau, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time and both teams scoring 50%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.61 for Hartberg, 0.95 for Austria Lustenau.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Hartberg wins; above it, Austria Lustenau wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 11 | 13 | 6 | 2 | |||
| 2 | 10 | 10 | 5 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
Hartberg goals in rows, Austria Lustenau goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Hartberg v Austria Lustenau?
Hartberg, at 52%. The full split is Hartberg 52%, draw 27%, Austria Lustenau 21%.
What is the most likely score in Hartberg v Austria Lustenau?
1–1, which comes up in 13.0% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Hartberg v Austria Lustenau?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 47% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 74% of the time. Expected goals are 1.61 for Hartberg and 0.95 for Austria Lustenau.
Will both teams score in Hartberg v Austria Lustenau?
Both teams score in 50% of simulations. Hartberg keep a clean sheet or Austria Lustenau fail to score in the remaining 50%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.