Sunday 11 October · 17:00
LASK – SK Rapid
LASK
3rd · attack 1.37 · defence 0.98
SK Rapid
1st · attack 1.21 · defence 1.09
Our model makes LASK favourites for LASK – SK Rapid, at 53%. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 17:00.
Across the full score distribution, LASK win 53% of the time, the draw comes up 24% and SK Rapid win 23%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 11.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.88 goals for LASK and 1.18 for SK Rapid, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time and both teams scoring 60%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.88 for LASK, 1.18 for SK Rapid.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, LASK wins; above it, SK Rapid wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 8 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 6 |
LASK goals in rows, SK Rapid goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in LASK v SK Rapid?
LASK, at 53%. The full split is LASK 53%, draw 24%, SK Rapid 23%.
What is the most likely score in LASK v SK Rapid?
1–1, which comes up in 11.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in LASK v SK Rapid?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 59% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 82% of the time. Expected goals are 1.88 for LASK and 1.18 for SK Rapid.
Will both teams score in LASK v SK Rapid?
Both teams score in 60% of simulations. LASK keep a clean sheet or SK Rapid fail to score in the remaining 40%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.