Sunday 11 October · 14:30
Rheindorf Altach – Wolfsberger AC
Rheindorf Altach
12th · attack 0.79 · defence 1.15
Wolfsberger AC
11th · attack 1.04 · defence 1.14
Our model makes Wolfsberger AC favourites for Rheindorf Altach – Wolfsberger AC, at 36% — but only 2.1% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 11 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, Rheindorf Altach win 34% of the time, the draw comes up 31% and Wolfsberger AC win 36%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.5% of simulations.
We expect 1.15 goals for Rheindorf Altach and 1.19 for Wolfsberger AC, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time and both teams scoring 49%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.15 for Rheindorf Altach, 1.19 for Wolfsberger AC.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Rheindorf Altach wins; above it, Wolfsberger AC wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 10 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Rheindorf Altach goals in rows, Wolfsberger AC goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC, at 36%. The full split is Rheindorf Altach 34%, draw 31%, Wolfsberger AC 36%.
What is the most likely score in Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC?
1–1, which comes up in 14.5% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 41% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 69% of the time. Expected goals are 1.15 for Rheindorf Altach and 1.19 for Wolfsberger AC.
Will both teams score in Rheindorf Altach v Wolfsberger AC?
Both teams score in 49% of simulations. Rheindorf Altach keep a clean sheet or Wolfsberger AC fail to score in the remaining 51%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.