Saturday 17 October · 19:30
Ried – Austria Wien
Ried
5th · attack 0.91 · defence 1.19
Austria Wien
10th · attack 1.00 · defence 1.12
Our model makes Ried favourites for Ried – Austria Wien, at 38% — but only 5.0% ahead of the next outcome, which is close to a coin toss. Kick-off 17 October 2026, 19:30.
Across the full score distribution, Ried win 38% of the time, the draw comes up 30% and Austria Wien win 33%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 14.1% of simulations.
We expect 1.30 goals for Ried and 1.19 for Austria Wien, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time and both teams scoring 52%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.30 for Ried, 1.19 for Austria Wien.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Ried wins; above it, Austria Wien wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 1 | 9 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 3 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | |||||||
| 6 |
Ried goals in rows, Austria Wien goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Ried v Austria Wien?
Ried, at 38%. The full split is Ried 38%, draw 30%, Austria Wien 33%.
What is the most likely score in Ried v Austria Wien?
1–1, which comes up in 14.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Ried v Austria Wien?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 45% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 72% of the time. Expected goals are 1.30 for Ried and 1.19 for Austria Wien.
Will both teams score in Ried v Austria Wien?
Both teams score in 52% of simulations. Ried keep a clean sheet or Austria Wien fail to score in the remaining 48%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.