Sunday 18 October · 14:30
Salzburg – Rheindorf Altach
Salzburg
2nd · attack 1.40 · defence 0.91
Rheindorf Altach
12th · attack 0.79 · defence 1.15
Our model makes Salzburg favourites for Salzburg – Rheindorf Altach, at 67%. Kick-off 18 October 2026, 14:30.
Across the full score distribution, Salzburg win 67% of the time, the draw comes up 21% and Rheindorf Altach win 11%. The single most likely scoreline is 2–0, in 13.1% of simulations.
We expect 2.05 goals for Salzburg and 0.72 for Rheindorf Altach, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time and both teams scoring 46%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 2.05 for Salzburg, 0.72 for Rheindorf Altach.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, Salzburg wins; above it, Rheindorf Altach wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 4 | 2 | ||||
| 1 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 2 | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 3 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 5 | 3 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 2 | 1 | |||||
| 6 | 1 |
Salzburg goals in rows, Rheindorf Altach goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach?
Salzburg, at 67%. The full split is Salzburg 67%, draw 21%, Rheindorf Altach 11%.
What is the most likely score in Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach?
2–0, which comes up in 13.1% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 52% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 77% of the time. Expected goals are 2.05 for Salzburg and 0.72 for Rheindorf Altach.
Will both teams score in Salzburg v Rheindorf Altach?
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Salzburg keep a clean sheet or Rheindorf Altach fail to score in the remaining 54%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.