Friday 16 October · 19:30
SK Rapid – Hartberg
SK Rapid
1st · attack 1.21 · defence 1.09
Hartberg
6th · attack 0.98 · defence 1.13
Our model makes SK Rapid favourites for SK Rapid – Hartberg, at 52%. Kick-off 16 October 2026, 19:30.
Across the full score distribution, SK Rapid win 52% of the time, the draw comes up 26% and Hartberg win 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1–1, in 12.4% of simulations.
We expect 1.73 goals for SK Rapid and 1.07 for Hartberg, which puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time and both teams scoring 55%.
Every figure on this page is read off the same score matrix, so they cannot contradict one another. They come from a Dixon-Coles model recomputed after every matchday, and they take no account of announced line-ups.
Expected goals: 1.73 for SK Rapid, 1.07 for Hartberg.
Goals in the match
Most likely scorelines
All scorelines
Probability of each exact scoreline. The diagonal is draws; below it, SK Rapid wins; above it, Hartberg wins.
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 1 | 9 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 2 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 2 | |||
| 3 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |||
| 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | ||||
| 5 | 1 | 1 | |||||
| 6 |
SK Rapid goals in rows, Hartberg goals in columns. Values are percentages; cells below 0.5% are left blank.
Frequently asked questions
Who are the favourites in SK Rapid v Hartberg?
SK Rapid, at 52%. The full split is SK Rapid 52%, draw 26%, Hartberg 22%.
What is the most likely score in SK Rapid v Hartberg?
1–1, which comes up in 12.4% of simulations. No single scoreline is ever very likely: the distribution is spread across many results, which is why the full matrix matters more than the top line.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in SK Rapid v Hartberg?
The model puts the game above 2.5 goals 53% of the time, and above 1.5 goals 78% of the time. Expected goals are 1.73 for SK Rapid and 1.07 for Hartberg.
Will both teams score in SK Rapid v Hartberg?
Both teams score in 55% of simulations. SK Rapid keep a clean sheet or Hartberg fail to score in the remaining 45%.
How are these probabilities calculated?
A Dixon-Coles model estimates an attacking and a defensive strength for every club from past results, with time decay so recent matches weigh more. Those strengths give the expected goals for each side, from which the full score matrix and every figure on this page are derived. It is recomputed after every matchday and does not read line-ups, injuries or transfers.
All these figures come from a single scoreline matrix, computed on Monday 21 September. They therefore cannot contradict one another: “over 2.5 goals” and “exact score” are two readings of the same object.